Sorry for the delay, was waiting on 2 pieces of information to come out, namely Italy and the U.K. numbers.
Italy because I was expecting a jump in cases and deaths, for a very simple reason : the lock-downs are not working, as I have repeated way to many times.
The U.K., because I have first hand information (a relative that is a nurse in a London Hospital) that the U.K. is testing virtually only serious and critical cases, and I was expecting the U.K. to start going up in cases and deaths this week, due to the fact that almost ALL hospitals in the U.K. are crammed with Chinese Virus patients, and the numbers will rise because they have to test everyone that is coming to the hospitals, being serious enough.
The more people get to hospitals, the more testing, hence more cases.
As a conclusion for Italy, and by extent, Spain :
Both countries are knee deep in shit. The epidemic is unstoppable at this point, both countries having over 5% of the population infected. The economy of both countries are close to collapse (2-3 weeks tops).
As a conclusion for the U.K., and by extent, Germany :
Both countries are doing testing in such a way, to keep either the numbers low (the U.K. by testing only serious and critical) or the death rate low (Germany mass testing people, most of them NOT serious or critical, but mild or asymptomatic, artificially lowering the CFR).
Germany also is hiding a TON of death by diagnosing them with the underlying health issues as the death cause.
I am going to bunch up together, in 3 categories, the following European countries, and will first talk about the epidemic side.
At the end of the update, before general conclusions, I have a first hand information on the economy for the entire Europe, and it is worse then even I predicted to be.
Category 1 : Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland and Austria.
Category 2 : Portugal, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland.
Category 3 : Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Baltic countries (and other East European countries).
The countries in the first category will explode in cases and deaths in the next 5 to 7 days, proving once again that the type of lock-downs in Europe are merely buying several days, before the epidemic is uncontrollable.
The countries in the second category will see the same explosion in cases and deaths in 7-10 days from today, before they will also lose the control on the epidemic.
The countries in the third category will see the same trend in 10 to 14 day from today, before, well, losing the control on the epidemic.
I have first hand information on the economic side of the entire Europe.
My brother have a transport company that, along with hundreds of other companies (more then 3,000 3.5 tonnes vans among all those companies) are working with the biggest European delivery company, doing mostly transport of mechanical parts and other heavy industries parts across ALL European countries.
He received the e-mail informing him and everyone else that the company is no longer delivering transport orders, starting immediately, suspending ALL orders immediately.
Every company that still have vans running, are free to recall of them back to their bases, before the contracted period is expiring, with no penalties attached.
Why this information is a big effin deal : virtually all of the transport orders (except sensitive stuff, like military transports and high value ones) were between factories and clients on the horizontal industry.
Over 3,000 3.5 tonnes vans from across Europe are no longer transporting anything...BECAUSE ALMOST ALL FACTORIES IN EUROPE ARE CLOSED for about 3-4 days now.
Now, I was expecting this to happen, but not before mid-April. I was expecting that transports to be the LAST to fall....and they were LAST to fall, because EVERYTHING else in Europe already fell.
The implications are HUGE. First, the oil prices will plummet. Secondly, not even Germany can sustain such a collapse for more then 1 month, where except food industry (which , on a side note, is already heavily affected in all of Europe), everything else is basically shut-down.
No wonder why ALL the leaders are pushing the "back to work" mantra.
But, here is the kicker : THEY CANNOT DO THAT. And this is where the 4th information, which is a brand new one, comes into play :
THERE IS NO WAY TO GAIN HERD IMMUNITY TO THE CHINESE VIRUS.
If they are lifting the lock-downs in the next 2 weeks...HELL WILL BREAK LOSE.
The Chinese Virus size makes it 3 times more able to mutate, compared to influenza, being 3 times larger.
Influenza virus is mutating every 1,000 infected or so. The Chinese Virus is doing it every 340 infected or so.
And...the Chinese Virus have a recombination function that allows it to replicate ANY protein from OTHER viruses that comes in contact with.
Mutations are not new strains. However, being able to mutate that fast, makes vaccines and herd immunity a pipe dream for AT LEAST 5-6 years.
Not to mention that at any point, the virus can and will mutate and form one (or more) strains. The chances are 3 times higher to create a new strain then influenza.
The conclusions are the same as they were 1 or 2 months ago, with a twist : short of a miracle, we're fucked...the twist is that this virus have a serious potential to become almost an E.L.E.
One thing is sure : even if some people will survive, most will not, and the world as we know it is coming to an end.
The Mad Max scenario is almost 100% certain at this point.
Now that you have read this story, please COVER THE COST for what your visit cost this site by clicking one or more of the ads below which generates Advertiser revenue of two to three cents per click - no purchase necessary by you -- and helps offset operating costs for this web site.
When YOU read a story here, the web hosting company charges us for "data transfer / Bandwidth" to convey the material to you. Without your help by clicking an ad below, this web site would be in danger of shut down from the data transfer charges. Please click any ad below to offset the cost of bringing this news to you.